An email chain (mildy edited to protect the innocent) between FF's college buddies regarding the start of the EPL:
College Buddy #1 (Arsenal supporter):
This Saturday, the EPL kicks off another season. It has been a busy off-season as some of well-financed clubs (Liverpool and ManU) have all made big splashes. More and more of the best talent in the world is landing in the Premiership. In particular, the ManU and Chelsea teams look very menacing. Arsenal continues to operate at a smaller budget but have a team loaded with young studs. I think that they are being under-estimated this year and have a shot at the title.
Here is a quick preview of some the top teams and players to watch.
Arsenal (Betfair odds imply 8.5% chance of winning the title)
"We want to be respected for our style of play."
"We have world-class players and we have compensated for the departures from the club. We are very well prepared."
- Arsene Wenger in a pre-season interview
While the pundits are predicting a fourth place finish at best for Arsenal, Arsene remains confident and this guy has usually been right in the past. Strange position for Arsenal, consecutive 4 th place finishes combined with the departures of Thierry Henry (to Barcelona), Freddie Ljungberg (to West Ham) and Julio Baptista (back to Madrid). Now, the Arsenal team that won the double in 2002 and was unbeaten in the Premiership in 2004 is almost completely turned over. While they have not made any big acquisitions, the team is loaded with young players who are exceptionally talented. Arsenal's second squad (mostly the young players) made it to the Carling Cup final last year and outplayed the Chelsea first team in that game despite losing.
Arsenal will have an exciting style of play. While I was in Cambodia in January I heard the following from a football analyst on ESPN Asia: "When they're on, Arsenal play the best football in the Premiership, hands down." Their games against ManU last year were terrific. Both Arsenal victories. Last year, they failed to gain maximum points against the second-tier teams because of a lack of vital goalscoring despite dominating the games. Against ManU, Chelsea and Liverpool, they had a record of 3 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws. This year, I expect that they will find the goals, take better advantage of their new stadium and surprise the field.
Key players to watch:
Strikers: Robin Van Persie (Holland) – scored 11 goals in 17 games last year, might be able to dominate this year; Eduardo da Siilva (Croatia via Brazil) – he scored a ton of goals in the Croatian league and has impressed in the pre-season; Theo Walcott (England) – super-fast 18-yr-old, hopefully he'll get some playing time this year
Midfielders: Cesc Fabregas (Spain) – one of the best creative midfielders in the premiership; Gilberto Silva (Brazil) – has recently been captaining the Brazilian national team, one of the few holdovers from 2004; Tomas Rosicky (Czech) – exciting attacking wing, had a disappointing first season, should start scoring more goals this year
Defense: Kolo Toure (Ivory Coast) – might be Arsenal's top player; Bacary Sagna (France) – new addition to the back four; Emanuel Eboue (Ivory Coast) – he might play some midfield this season, is great at shutting down C. Ronaldo
Man United (41% chance)
ManU surprised the league last year with a really strong start and held off the challenge from Chelsea to capture the title. Ronaldo was amazing last year and Rooney played great in the second half of the season. They have some terrific players joining them (Owen Hargeaves from Munich, the young Brazilian Anderson, the Portuguese Nani, and most likely Carlos Tevez). They should be a fast-paced, exciting team to watch. Their collection of midfielders and strikers can rival that of Barcelona. Giggs and Scholes are still playing at a very high level. The Arsenal-ManU matches should be terrific football. I think that there back four is a little weak and AC Milan carved them up in the Champion's League semi-final but it seems like ManU has the chance to stop Chelsea again this year.
Chelsea (33% chance)
Chelsea was relatively quiet this off-season but still have one of the top 5 squads in the world. Loaded with stars at every position. Last year, Didier Drogba established himself as one of the very best in the Premiership. I'm expecting a big season from Joe Cole and Michael Ballack will probably play like a world-class midfielder this year. John Terry (the England captain) is out for about a month. The Frenchman Flourent Malouda who recently joined could provide some strong attacking presence in their midfield. They might lose Arjen Robben to Real Madrid. Their manager is pretty confident that they can take out ManU this year. They have a squad built to compete in all of the competitions simultaneously. They should be in the chase until the end.
Liverpool (14% chance)
Last year's Champion's League finalists seem to be a team on the rise. They added the most expensive transfer of the summer – Fernando Torres from Athletico Madrid. Torres is a great young talent from Spain. Plus, they might have a gem in Ryan Babel from Holland. Steven Gerrard remains the top English player and will probably have a great season. During last season, they picked up Javier Mascherano from West Ham (another Argentine that fled Brazil for West Ham). He is outstanding and should remain a star at Anfield. I think that they'll again be shooting for a third place finish but might do well in the Champions League again.
West Ham (0.2% chance )
One of these teams is not like the others and that would be [College Buddy #3]'s West Ham United. They barely escaped relegation last season by using their possibly illegal ringer (the magnificent Carlos Tevez) to defeat ManU at Old Trafford on the final day of the season. They did have a great finish to last season with 7 wins in their last 9 games. They have some good players coming in (Scott Parker, Craig Bellamy and Richard Wright) and will be graced with the presence of Freddie Ljungberg this season. [CB3] thinks that they will contend for 6th place this year. Good luck Hammers, you'll need it!
Notes:
Arsenal open against Fulham on Sunday at 4AM PST. Ouch! I might watch a replay.
Here are some of the other interesting early-season games. I'd mark Dec. 15 on the calendar. I'll be at the Mad Dog.
Aug. 19 Liverpool - Chelsea
Sep. 23 ManU - Chelsea
Nov. 3 Arsenal – ManU
Dec. 15 Arsenal – Chelsea
Dec. 15 Liverpool - ManU
One non-English team to watch this season is Barcelona. With the addition of Thierry Henry, they have some frightening striking power: Deco, Messi, Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Henry. That might be 4 of the top 10 players in the world. They're the early Champions League favorites.
FF Reply (Liverpool supporter, of course):
Great summary. A few thoughts:
1. Arsenal, while pretty, is simply too young to win the Premiership, my friend. And Kolo Toure? He's good, but he's not better than Cesc Fabregas!
2. Chelsea has muscle but no spirit. You knock a bully down, like ManU did to Chelsea in the Premiership race and Liverpool did (again) in the CL semis, and they're never the same. With Terry injured I don't see them starting fast, either. Of course, this means they'll probably win ten straight to start the season.
3. ManU will score a lot of goals with Rooney, Ronaldo, and Tevez, for sure. But I suspect Giggs and Scholes will decline. They're old. And, I don't care what anyone says, Michael Carrick is not a world-class midfielder. Owen Hargreaves, on the other hand, is the real deal. ManU will probably win the Premiership...
4. ...Except that this is LIVERPOOL's year! Stout defense (Jamie Carragher calling into a British sports talk show to challenge a host who was disparaging him to "come down to Anfield and say it to my face" was the highlight of the summer), a ferocious midfield (Mascherano the destroyer, Alonso the playmaker, Gerrard the dynamo) and...strikers who need to step it up. If Torres is as good as his press, I like the Reds' chances.
5. Root for Rangers and Benfica in the Champions League. Americans DaMarcus Beasley and Freddy Adu play for them, respectively, and we want our boys to get Champions League experience. Beasley just scored the winning goal in a CL qualifier, in fact.
College Buddy #2 (teamless mercenary):
I'll add that I have had tremendous luck picking opposite [College Buddy #1] the last few soccer matches (Brazil v Argentina in the Copa America, Milian v Liverpool in the Champions League, and Chelsea v Club America in the Stanford friendly). Does this bode well for West Ham given he is disparaging the poor Hammers? Not even I could take them to the championship in FIFA 2007. The result: root for Arsenal, but bet on ManU.
College Buddy #3 (West Ham supporter!):Part of the reason to support West Ham is the tension that fans face throughout the course of the season. Whilst 75% of last season was shambolic for Hammers fans, the last 10 games were absolutely phenomenal.
I watched the Hammers blow a 3-1 lead against Tottenham on March 5th, with Berbatov equalizing in the 89th minute and then Paul Stalteri scoring the go ahead in stoppage time. It was a gut wrenching game, made particularly painful by the Hammers plight. At that point in the season they were dead last with nine games to go, 14 points below Wigan who were in 17th. In fact, at that point, bookies were accepting bets at 50-1 that West Ham would stay up in the Premiership. This particular game was also notable as it was when the infamous Carlito Tevez scored his first Premiership goal and infamously ripped of his shirt and leapt into the crowd. The game was later voted by many sources as one of the top 3 European football matches of the year (not bad considering it showcased the lowly West Ham!). This game also marked the beginning of an absolutely incredible end of season run, where the Hammers picked up 21 points in the last 9 games, a virtually impossible feat given they had match ups against Man U (final game of the season at Old Trafford), Chelsea, Liverpool and the infamous Arsenal.
The Hammers are scrappy, tenacious, and above all spirited. But it's equally the fans that help make the experience (see the movie 'Green Street'). These guys are some of the ugliest and meanest looking people you'll come across. Tatoos, piercings, hill bill cockney slang. They make the Raiders' fans look civilized! But they do give West Ham everything they've got. It's an unbelievable experience going into a pub pre game and seeing them in action.
In any event, whilst I agree with the odds laid down for the Hammers to win the Premiership, I think there is a 100% chance that West Ham will make it another amazing season to follow and I honestly believe there is a high likelihood we can slip back into a UEFA cup spot. Losing Tevez was a massive blow, but with Dean Ashton (England striker who missed all of last season due to a broken leg) fit and scoring goals again, joined be Welsh captain and former Liverpool striker Bellamy upfront, and new signings Scott Parker (captain of Newcastle last year) and Freddie Ljungberg (former Arsenal great and Swedish captain), as well as rumblings of potential signings of Kieron Dyer and Eidur Gudjohnson (Barcelona and formerly Chelsea) still on the horizon, I think this year is shaping up very nicely.
As for who to support if you want a Premiership and Champions League title contender, the answer is simple: Man U. With Tevez signing today to bolster a team that was already stacked with talent, I predict they will take away both trophies. Other predictions for the season include:
- Liverpool to take second place, knocking Chelsea down to third
- Arsenal missing the Champions League cut for 08/09 as Tottenham finally sneaks away with fourth place
You have to love the start of the football season!
FF
posted by Fanfutbol @ 4:33 PM
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