Thursday, September 07, 2006

SI.com's Marcotti grades the clubs on transfers here.

I strongly agree with his thoughts re the Gallas-Cole swap. I recently had the following exchange with a Gunners-supporting friend of mine:

FF: I say Arsenal got the better of this trade. I think Cole is a bit overrated (he gets beat more often than I would expect for a defender of his reputation) and Gallas underrated. Chelsea's defense this year, absent Gallas, has been lazy and soft. That's not a coincidence.

Gunners Fan: I agree with your analysis wholeheartedly. The only metric by which Chelsea wins this deal is the players' respective ages. Cole is 4 years younger than Gallas (25 v 29), which is not an insignificant difference. That said, a player who can play anywhere along the defensive line, as Gallas can, is worth his weight in gold, and is certainly far more useful than a strictly left-sided defender. The obvious comparison for Gallas is to Thuram, who was able to move seamlessly between right back and centre-back for France and Juve, and that's pretty damn high praise. Cole is a good player, but can probably be replaced reasonably well by Clichy or some other guy from that bottomless France/Africa locker to which only Arsene Wenger seems to know the combination.

FF: Definitely a big difference in their ages, which is the only downside for Arsenal, as you point out. But I'm of the opinion that you should value almost all soccer deals in three year chunks, i.e., what value can you expect in the next three years? There I'd take Gallas and 5m pounds in a heartbeat. The soccer landscape -- and the players themselves -- change so frequently and so unexpectedly that trying to guess a player's value farther than three years out (except for maybe a handful of players) is almost pure speculation. So I heavily discount that aspect when valuing deals, and Gallas is not so old that he'll be a shell before three years is up.

Unrelated thought: This is a great weekend for soccer on FSC, with Arsenal-Boro and United-Spurs on Saturday morning. An excellent way to start one's Saturday.

FF

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